Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
