A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
